Crypto Daybook Americas: It’s Glass Half Full Despite Record Short Bitcoin ETF Volume

Crypto Daybook Americas: It’s Glass Half Full Despite Record Short Bitcoin ETF Volume

By Omkar Godbole (All occasions ET until indicated in any other case)

You know the way it feels if you’re watching a match, each groups rating and you find yourself with a draw? So, that is the bitcoin market proper now.

The bulls pushed costs above $103,000 early Thursday, just for the bears to chunk again, crashing costs to $91,000. Because it stands, we’re buying and selling steadily round $98,000. Speak about undecided …

The crash shook out leveraged crypto futures bets price round $1 billion, bringing a level of normality to what had grow to be an overheated market. That is presumably a blessing in disguise, as a result of had BTC surged all the best way as much as $120,000, the eventual leverage shakeout would have been much more extreme and will have probably broken investor confidence.

The glass-half-full perspective is supported by bitcoin spot ETFs, which managed to tug in a web $766 million regardless of the chaos.

However there is a glass-half-empty facet too. The ProShares Extremely Short Bitcoin ETF, which tracks twice the inverse of bitcoin’s each day efficiency, additionally noticed a web influx in addition to file buying and selling quantity. Whereas the $7 million added is small in contrast with the lengthy spot ETFs, it reveals the bears are able to make their presence felt.

If all of it feels somewhat shaky, there’s extra to come back, with the possibility of draw back volatility if U.S. nonfarm payrolls knowledge factors to a resilient labour market and sticky wage pressures. That may immediate a recalibration of Fed rate-cut expectations and presumably harm crypto costs. Weak knowledge, conversely, might yield a value bounce, though buying and selling directionally is perhaps tough whereas costs are this indecisive.

In different information, President-elect Donald Trump’s appointment of David Sacks as Crypto and AI Czar (which could appear to be the alternative of crypto’s decentralization ethos) is being seen positively for Solana’s ETF prospects. Why? As a result of at one level, Sacks was related to the crypto hedge fund Multicoin, certainly one of Solana’s early traders. It appears farfetched, however hey it is a typical bull-market narrative.

Wanting on the broader market, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is shortly approaching the $4.6 billion market worth of Arbitrum’s ARB token in a transfer that signifies application-specific layer 2s like Hyperliquid have gotten the “real value capture mechanisms for DeFi applications,” in line with Gautham Santosh, founding father of Polynomial Protocol.

Gautham famous on X that constructing on general-purpose layer 2s might imply establishing another person’s moat, basically translating your success into their token worth. He factors out that whereas Arbitrum-based perpetual protocol GMX generates 54% extra income than Hyperliquid, its market cap stands at simply $376 million or simply 8% of Hyperliquid’s.

That is rather a lot to absorb for at this time. So, as dealer Alex Kruger stated on X, “If you’re not a full-time trader, focus on portfolio construction.” Keep alert on the market!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
    • Dec. 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) This autumn FY 2024 earnings. EPS Est. $-0.18 vs Prev. $-1.02.
  • Macro
    • Dec. 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases November’s Employment Scenario Report.
      • Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Est. 200K vs Prev. 12K.
      • Unemployment Price Est. 4.2% vs Prev. 4.1%.
      • Common Hourly Earnings MoM Est. 0.3% vs Prev. 0.4%.
      • Common Hourly Earnings YoY Est. 3.9% vs Prev. 4.0%.
    • Dec. 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases November’s Shopper Value Index (CPI) knowledge.
      • Core Inflation Price YoY Prev. 3.3%.
      • Inflation Price YoY Prev. 2.6%
    • Dec. 11, 9:45 a.m.: The Financial institution of Canada broadcasts its coverage rate of interest (often known as in a single day goal price and in a single day lending price). Prev. 3.75%.
    • Dec. 12, 8:15 a.m.: The European Central Financial institution (ECB) broadcasts its newest financial coverage resolution (three key rates of interest).
      • Deposit facility rate of interest Prev. 3.25%.
      • Predominant refinancing operations rate of interest Prev. 3.4%.
      • Marginal lending facility rate of interest Prev. 3.65%.

Token Occasions

  • Unlocks
    • Solana’s Jito to launch 105% of JTO circulating provide on Dec. 7 at 10 a.m., price practically $500 million at present costs.
    • Neon to launch 50% of NEON circulating provide on Dec. 7 at 10 a.m., price $35 million at present costs.
  • Token Launches
    • Binance lists Throughout Protocol’s ACX and Orca’s ORCA, buying and selling to start at 8 a.m.
    • Futures of PolyhedraZK’s ZKJ went reside on OKX.

Conferences:

Token Speak

By Shaurya Malwa
Ethereum and Base memecoin mog (MOG) surged 40% to set contemporary highs Friday on the again of a Coinbase spot market itemizing. It turns into the second-largest cat-themed token behind Solana-based popcat (POPCAT)

The memecoin is understood for its distinctive branding across the meme of a cat laughing with tears (typically represented by the “joycat” emoji 😹) and sporting Pit Viper sun shades. This token would not boast any intrinsic utility, thriving as a substitute on its community-driven ethos and the virality of meme tradition throughout the cryptocurrency house.

Meme cash typically depend on neighborhood hype, and MOG has efficiently captured a zeitgeist with its humorous and culturally resonant branding driving demand.

Its cult neighborhood typically seems to ‘mog’ different token communities (a slang time period for outperforming) on social posts or in replies on X — and that has grow to be a meme itself, additional fueling the token’s recognition.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC and ETH perpetual funding charges have normalized from beforehand overheated ranges, with the ETH price remaining elevated in contrast with BTC, suggesting a bullish bias for the ETH/BTC ratio. The positioning in SOL perpetuals is much more bullish.
  • The open interest-normalized cumulative quantity delta has declined for many main tokens previously 24 hours, indicating that the sell-off primarily resulted from the unwinding of lengthy positions slightly than contemporary shorts.
  • Despite BTC’s fast retrace to sub-$100K ranges, calls proceed to commerce at a premium to places, though the unfold is narrower than it was early Thursday. The same dynamic is noticed in ETH choices.
  • A big bull name unfold crossed the tape on Deribit, involving a protracted place within the $106,000 strike name and shorting the $110,000 strike name, each expiring on Dec. 27, in line with knowledge supply Amberdata.

Market Actions:

  • BTC is down 0.82% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday to $98,196.16 (24hrs: -4.05%)
  • ETH is up 0.27% at $3,870.06 (24hrs: -1.93%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 0.29% to three,954.73 (24hrs: -3.32%)
  • Ether staking yield is down 5 bps to three.22%
  • BTC funding price is at 0.0165% (18.05% annualized) on Binance
  • DXY is unchanged at 105.80
  • Gold is up 1.12% at $2656.00/oz
  • Silver is up 1.73% to $31.67/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed -0.77% at 39,091.17
  • Grasp Seng closed +1.56% at 19,865.85
  • FTSE is unchanged at 8,354.46
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.56% at 4,979.24
  • DJIA closed on Thursday -0.55% to 44,765.71
  • S&P 500 closed -0.19% at 6,075.11
  • Nasdaq closed -0.18% at 19,700.26
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.15% at 25,635.73
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.37% at 2,368.14
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury was unchanged at 4.18%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,083.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 21,465.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Common Index futures are unchanged at 44,846.00

Bitcoin Stats:

  • BTC Dominance: 55.76% (0.10%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03937 (1.08%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day shifting common): 800 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $63.02
  • Whole Charges: 14.28 BTC/ $1.4M
  • CME Futures Open Curiosity: 518K BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 37.3 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 10.62%
  • Bitcoin sitting in over-the-counter desk balances: 423.84k

Basket Efficiency

Basket performance as of Dec. 6

Technical Evaluation

Dollar Index's daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Greenback Index’s each day chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • The chart reveals the greenback index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. foreign money’s worth in opposition to main friends, has dived out of a trendline, characterizing the steep rally from late September lows.
  • Renewed losses in DXY will possible ease monetary circumstances additional, supporting extra risk-taking in monetary markets.

TradFi Property

  • MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $386.4 (-4.83%), up 0.47% at $388.23 in pre-market.
  • Coinbase World (COIN): closed at $320.57 (-3.13%), up 0.83% at $323.24 in pre-market.
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.65 (-0.22%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $24.79 (-4.51%), down 0.69% at $24.96 in pre-market.
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.32 (-4.86%), up 0.16% at $12.34 in pre-market.
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.94 (-3.03%), down 1% at $16.77 in pre-market.
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.93 (-5.11%), up 0.5% at $14.00 in pre-market.
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $28.91 (-2.07%), up 0.83% at $29.15 in pre-market.
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $58.55 (-7.65%), up 1.95% at $59.69 in pre-market.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

  • Every day web influx: $766.7 million
  • Cumulative web inflows: $33.03 billion
  • Whole BTC holdings ~ 1.092 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Every day web influx: $428.5 million
  • Cumulative web inflows: $1.32 billion
  • Whole ETH holdings ~ 3.158 million.

Supply: Farside Traders

In a single day Flows

Top digital assets’ volume and performance

Chart of the Day

Daily stablecoin transfer volume (Artemis)

Every day stablecoin switch quantity (Artemis)

  • The each day stablecoin switch quantity has surged to just about $150 billion, essentially the most since Might.
  • Stablecoins are extensively used to fund cryptocurrency purchases, derivatives buying and selling and to maneuver capital throughout borders.

Whereas You Had been Sleeping

  • Trump Names David Sacks as ‘AI and Crypto Czar’ (CoinDesk): President-elect Donald Trump appointed David Sacks as his czar for synthetic intelligence and cryptocurrency, aiming to spice up U.S. management in these sectors. Sacks, a PayPal veteran and enterprise capitalist, will prioritize cryptocurrency regulation and safeguarding free speech whereas addressing considerations over Large Tech bias.
  • Macron Vows to Serve The rest of Time period as French President (Bloomberg): French President Emmanuel Macron vowed to serve out his time period by 2027, calling for unity after his authorities was ousted in a no-confidence vote. He pledged to nominate a brand new prime minister inside days to type a authorities and tackle France’s stalled price range disaster.
  • Memecoins Attain $140B Market Cap and Acquire Floor in Crypto Economic system (CoinDesk): Memecoins, led by dogecoin, have grown 330 % in market worth since Jan. 1, and now account for 3.16% of the crypto market and 5.27% of whole buying and selling quantity. The expansion of latest tokens and exercise on platforms like Solana has raised questions in regards to the sector’s long-term stability.
  • Traders Poured $140B Into U.S. Inventory Funds After Trump Election Victory (Monetary Occasions): The S&P 500 climbed 5.3 % in November as traders poured $139.5 billion into U.S. fairness funds, the strongest month-to-month influx on file, pushed by optimism over President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-growth agenda. In the meantime, fairness markets in rising economies, Europe, and Japan suffered vital outflows amid commerce stress fears.
  • India’s Central Financial institution Revises Down Financial Development Forecast for 2025, Retains Curiosity Price Regular (CNBC): India’s central financial institution held its benchmark rate of interest regular at 6.5% on Friday, citing a have to steadiness rising inflation with financial development. It additionally lowered banks’ money reserve ratio by 50 foundation factors to 4.0% to assist liquidity. The RBI downgraded its fiscal 2025 GDP development forecast to six.6%, reflecting considerations over a slowing economic system.
  • Prime NFT Model Pudgy Penguins to Launch PENGU Token (CoinDesk): Pudgy Penguins, a high NFT assortment, plans to launch a token known as PENGU on Solana this yr, with 23.5% of its 88 billion provide reserved for holders of associated NFTs. Despite the NFT market downturn, Pudgy Penguins’ sturdy cultural relevance positions it properly in a market now favoring memecoins over NFTs.

Within the Ether

President-elect names AI & Crypto Czar

President-elect on crypto

Over the next decade, digital dollars will come to define the world of finance: Mason Nystrom
Pentoshi on CT exposure
Hyperliquid trading volume tops $10 billion
Solana’s various developments including block limit increases, ETF filings
93% of crypto trades in South Korea are alt coins
Pudgy Penguins’ floor price tops $70,000

Supply hyperlink

bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 95,698.64 1.17%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,576.59 2.47%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00 0.01%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 2.34 4.10%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 197.43 2.03%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 599.64 2.43%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.00%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.242571 4.50%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 2,578.18 2.37%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.665514 4.92%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.228601 1.59%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 95,374.55 1.37%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 17.75 3.46%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 3,072.14 2.48%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 24.00 2.55%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 3.75 0.12%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.304115 7.83%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.86 0.43%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000015 4.85%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 2.92 4.97%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.224804 4.30%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 0.999408 0.14%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 107.86 2.38%
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 6.34 1.88%
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 22.36 4.54%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 2,574.32 2.57%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.63 2.18%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 317.67 1.62%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00 0.01%
mantra-dao
MANTRA (OM) $ 6.07 0.80%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 8.90 1.55%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,726.79 2.54%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 221.38 2.86%
ondo-finance
Ondo (ONDO) $ 1.30 4.60%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 27.31 0.28%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000009 3.77%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 3.08 6.84%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 235.92 2.49%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00 0.03%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 1.00 4.60%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 5.70 3.33%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 6.75 3.14%
susds
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.03 0.25%
official-trump
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 14.84 14.30%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 19.72 2.12%
bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) $ 355.08 0.37%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 47.01 2.06%
gatechain-token
Gate (GT) $ 21.28 0.26%
polygon-ecosystem-token
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.295398 4.78%
vechain
VeChain (VET) $ 0.03101 6.05%
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.090369 4.99%
coinbase-wrapped-btc
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 95,563.60 1.35%
algorand
Algorand (ALGO) $ 0.270064 2.47%
tokenize-xchange
Tokenize Xchange (TKX) $ 28.09 4.25%
kaspa
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.084482 3.19%
render-token
Render (RENDER) $ 4.13 3.44%
jupiter-exchange-solana
Jupiter (JUP) $ 0.804785 5.78%
first-digital-usd
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 0.999222 0.08%
filecoin
Filecoin (FIL) $ 3.20 3.14%
cosmos
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 4.45 2.30%
fetch-ai
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 0.743846 1.07%
arbitrum
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.437125 3.58%
lombard-staked-btc
Lombard Staked BTC (LBTC) $ 94,697.37 2.31%
fasttoken
Fasttoken (FTN) $ 3.94 0.07%
binance-staked-sol
Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) $ 203.53 2.32%
celestia
Celestia (TIA) $ 3.02 0.86%
binance-peg-weth
Binance-Peg WETH (WETH) $ 2,579.00 2.35%
kelp-dao-restaked-eth
Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (RSETH) $ 2,667.17 2.45%
solv-btc
Solv Protocol SolvBTC (SOLVBTC) $ 95,446.57 1.06%
kucoin-shares
KuCoin (KCS) $ 12.08 0.80%
ethena
Ethena (ENA) $ 0.465769 10.04%
optimism
Optimism (OP) $ 1.04 1.97%
xdce-crowd-sale
XDC Network (XDC) $ 0.089917 0.15%
immutable-x
Immutable (IMX) $ 0.789831 2.09%
blockstack
Stacks (STX) $ 0.882364 0.58%
raydium
Raydium (RAY) $ 4.53 10.71%
injective-protocol
Injective (INJ) $ 13.46 2.62%
lido-dao
Lido DAO (LDO) $ 1.46 4.42%
rocket-pool-eth
Rocket Pool ETH (RETH) $ 2,893.07 2.31%
bonk
Bonk (BONK) $ 0.000017 6.19%
nexo
NEXO (NEXO) $ 1.28 3.30%
sonic-3
Sonic (prev. FTM) (S) $ 0.399819 1.75%
theta-token
Theta Network (THETA) $ 1.24 6.07%
mantle-staked-ether
Mantle Staked Ether (METH) $ 2,727.42 2.26%
flare-networks
Flare (FLR) $ 0.020948 2.69%
the-graph
The Graph (GRT) $ 0.128465 1.58%
movement
Movement (MOVE) $ 0.497908 10.34%
worldcoin-wld
Worldcoin (WLD) $ 1.18 5.75%
usual-usd
Usual USD (USD0) $ 0.997536 0.06%
dexe
DeXe (DEXE) $ 19.18 7.86%
jasmycoin
JasmyCoin (JASMY) $ 0.021868 1.77%
solv-protocol-solvbtc-bbn
Solv Protocol SolvBTC.BBN (SOLVBTC.BB) $ 94,315.27 0.82%
msol
Marinade Staked SOL (MSOL) $ 249.97 2.08%
sei-network
Sei (SEI) $ 0.217119 3.99%
gala
GALA (GALA) $ 0.021118 4.22%
eos
EOS (EOS) $ 0.587449 3.32%
the-sandbox
The Sandbox (SAND) $ 0.362668 6.55%
tezos
Tezos (XTZ) $ 0.854972 2.85%
floki
FLOKI (FLOKI) $ 0.000091 2.64%
ultima
Ultima (ULTIMA) $ 19,230.56 2.29%
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