Bitcoin Will Soar, Altcoins Won’t—Charles Edwards Explains Why

In an interview with Korean crypto researcher Juhyuk Bak, also called @JuhyukB, Capriole Investments CEO Charles Edwards laid out a placing divergence within the crypto asset markets: whereas Bitcoin may double this 12 months, altcoins stay structurally impaired and much from any significant rotation.

Bitcoin Might Hit $200,000 This Yr

Talking from the angle of a macro quant hedge fund operator, Edwards was unequivocally bullish on Bitcoin, stating, “If the data stays in the current trend we’re in, I think $150–200K is definitely possible this year.” The founding father of Capriole, a fund recognized for pioneering on-chain valuation fashions like Hash Ribbons, Power Worth, and the Macro Index, grounded this forecast in an internet of interlocking technical, sentiment, and macroeconomic indicators.

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“We’re printing new all-time highs on daily and weekly closes,” Edwards famous. “As long as we stay above $104K […] as long as the Macro Index trends up, and US liquidity continues to rise, this environment is very bullish.”

Capriole’s proprietary Macro Index—a machine studying mannequin aggregating over 100 inputs from Fed liquidity to bond and fairness markets—has turned decisively constructive. Bitcoin’s rally, Edwards emphasised, is additional strengthened by metrics like MVRV Z-Rating, Hodler Progress Charges, and Power Worth, all signaling room for growth.

However whereas Bitcoin reveals energy throughout a number of dimensions, altcoins are telling a really completely different story.

The Dying Of The Outdated Altcoin Cycle

Edwards kept away from naming particular altcoins however delivered a transparent macro verdict: the capital movement dynamics have modified, and altcoins are now not on an equal footing with Bitcoin. “Structurally, things are quite a bit different this cycle […] the biggest driving forces are Bitcoin ETFs and US policy. That’s creating a centralizing effect—funneling capital directly into Bitcoin,” he defined.

He pointed to the historic cycles of retail-led altcoin rallies, adopted by catastrophic drawdowns—typically exceeding 99% losses. “Retail has just gotten destroyed,” he mentioned bluntly. “There’s a fatigue in the altcoin space that wasn’t there four or five years ago.”

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The legacy of failed ICOs, damaged tokenomics, and occasions just like the FTX collapse have left lasting scars. In the meantime, establishments are avoiding the dangers and complexity of smaller-cap digital belongings, opting as a substitute for regulated Bitcoin publicity by way of ETFs and company treasury allocations. “It used to be more of a level playing field. That’s no longer the case,” Edwards mentioned. “The real money is flowing into Bitcoin—and that probably continues for a while.”

When Will Altcoins Wake Up?

Regardless of the grim tone, Edwards doesn’t dismiss altcoins totally. He views a robust altcoin cycle as conditional—not not possible, however depending on clear Bitcoin dominance first.

Utilizing Capriole’s Hypothesis Index and Crypto Breadth fashions, which monitor the relative energy and value motion of altcoins, he made a key commentary: “Right now, only 5% of altcoins are above their 200-day moving average. That’s not bullish.”

He in contrast the present setup to late 2020, when Bitcoin surged from $10K to $60K earlier than altcoins started outperforming. That rotation required Bitcoin to first breach earlier all-time highs decisively. “You want Bitcoin to hit something like $140K while alts are still underperforming. That would be the ideal setup […] that’s when capital begins rotating downstream,” he defined.

Conversely, if altcoins start pumping prematurely, whereas Bitcoin stays vary certain, Edwards sees that as a prime sign. “That’s usually the last puff of air,” he warned.

Cycles Are Altering, Dangers Are Evolving

Past value motion, Edwards questioned the relevance of conventional halving cycles. He argued that the affect of miners—as soon as the first driver of Bitcoin provide dynamics—has diminished considerably resulting from ETFs, company treasuries, and sovereign actors like Michael Saylor. “That four-year cycle is dead—or at least dramatically weaker. Miners are now just 2–3% of the total supply flow. The real drivers today are institutions,” he mentioned.

This evolution reduces the chance of 80% drawdowns and will increase the danger of systemic leverage—significantly from publicly traded Bitcoin-heavy corporations. Whereas not a direct concern, Edwards sees potential for long-term vulnerabilities if main gamers overextend.

Edwards additionally mentioned diversification inside Capriole’s portfolio. Whereas Bitcoin stays the agency’s core allocation, he revealed publicity to quantum computing equities like IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti (RGTI), D-Wave (QBTS), and QUBT. “I think quantum is like Bitcoin in 2015. It’s early, it’s volatile, but the long-term CAGR could be even higher than Bitcoin’s.”

He added that gold additionally performs a strategic position, not as a alternative however as a hedge. Capriole screens the gold-to-equity ratio carefully, and its breakout above the 200-day transferring common is seen as a traditionally bullish sign—each for gold and Bitcoin.

In closing, Edwards urged buyers to tune out many of the monetary information cycle. “Probably 99% of headlines don’t matter,” he mentioned. As an alternative, give attention to game-changing shifts: Fed pivots, world liquidity expansions, and true structural reconfigurations of capital movement. “We’re wired to overreact to bad news. The key is to filter it down to a few macro drivers that actually move the market—and Bitcoin right now has those working in its favor.”

Till altcoins present significant breadth and break their long-term resistance buildings, Edwards’ message is obvious: Bitcoin will soar. Altcoins gained’t—no less than, not but.

At press time, BTC traded at $105,557.

Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com