Crypto Bull Run Over? Here’s What A Top Trader Just Said

With Bitcoin precariously recovering above the $100,000 mark and altcoins bleeding momentum, merchants are asking the plain: Is the crypto bull run over? In response to systematic dealer Adam Bakay (@abetrade), the reply shouldn’t be so clear-cut. In an in depth market breakdown posted June 22, Bakay supplied a technically grounded, cautiously defensive evaluation—one which acknowledges geopolitical dangers however stays rooted in positioning and worth construction.

Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over?

“Looking at the monthly and weekly timeframes, we are still technically in an uptrend,” Bakay wrote, noting that “no key swing low was broken, and the 365-day rolling VWAP has been respected during the pullback in April.” Regardless of this, he admits that “the failure to make new all-time highs similar to the top in 2021” is a priority—particularly given the buildup by gamers like BlackRock, which now holds round 3.5% of Bitcoin’s whole provide.

It’s that divergence—between sturdy institutional curiosity and a market struggling to interrupt larger—that has made Bakay extra cautious in current weeks. “This is why I have been very defensive and kept most of my trades short-term,” he mentioned.

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His buying and selling view focuses on two potential technical situations: both a reclaim of the $100,000 assist space—“likely if the conflict in the Middle East does not further escalate”—or a dip into the $97,000–$95,000 vary, the place sturdy technical assist resides within the type of the 200-day transferring common, native worth construction, and the 90-day rolling VWAP.

Nonetheless, Bakay made it clear he’s not shorting the market. “I am not currently considering any short trades due to my current positioning,” he emphasised, including that open curiosity is dropping and that we’re beginning to see the “first signs of clear spot bid interest since the April lows.” The choices market, in the meantime, is flashing early warning: the 25-delta danger reversal skew sits round -5, not but at panic ranges, however trending extra unfavorable.

Crypto Bull Run In Jeopardy

On Ethereum, Bakay was notably blunt. “ETH almost had its moment, but of course had to become a disappointment,” he mentioned. He attributes the failed breakout partially to how shortly the “DeFi Summer 2025” narrative went viral. “People are getting too horny, and market made sure to punish them,” he famous, referencing his personal tweet from a number of days earlier.

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The technical image on ETH doesn’t encourage confidence both. “During significant market moves, like we had at the beginning of May, the last thing you want to see is price retracing throughout that area,” he defined, saying the following significant assist lies close to $1,800. On the day by day chart, Ethereum is sitting proper at a confluence of assist—each the 90-day rolling VWAP and what he calls a “pivotal level.” Nonetheless, very similar to Bitcoin, Bakay sees Ethereum’s short-term destiny as largely depending on developments within the Center East.

On positioning, ETH additionally reveals indicators of an oversold setting, although Bakay believes excessive volatility in ETH choices has induced merchants to make use of spreads as a substitute of outright directional bets. “Positioning is now very clearly pointing towards the possible upside reversal in both perpetual and spot,” he mentioned.

Altcoins obtained no reprieve. “Altcoins have not been having fun for quite a while,” Bakay wrote, declaring that “every time it starts to look better, it will almost immediately get worse.” He notes that the anticipated rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins hasn’t materialized, and the actual rotation now appears to be into crypto-related equities, which higher replicate the ETF-driven macro commerce.

Even sturdy names like Solana are fading. “SOL has almost retraced the entire rally from April,” he warned. The important thing degree to look at is $100. “There is not much of a technical support sub-$100,” and if “shit hits the fan,” Bakay would look to bid round that spherical quantity.

Bakay additionally briefly touched on two newer altcoins—Hype and Fartcoin—saying one affords a strong product and the opposite attracts curiosity via volatility and liquidity. “Fartcoin would become attractive if it could reclaim the $1 or $0.50 area. Hype could find a bounce sub-$30.”

His closing ideas have been pragmatic: “We are not in easy market conditions, with a lot of geopolitical uncertainty, and markets can be significantly affected by a single news release.” Whereas he believes the market could also be “getting too short at the moment,” he stays extremely acutely aware of the chance {that a} multi-month correction is already in play. “I don’t think there is a need to be a hero and try to catch a falling knife,” he concluded. “I would much rather wait for some positive news and signs of lower timeframe reversals.”

In essence, Bakay doesn’t name the highest. However his put up makes one factor clear: this isn’t a marketplace for bravado. It’s a time for restraint, tight danger administration, and respect for volatility—particularly when the bullish case now not has momentum on its aspect.

At press time, BTC traded at $101,847.

Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com