Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) shares fell greater than 10% Tuesday to $92, a two-year low, as bitcoin cratered beneath $60,000 and an analyst notice from CryptoQuant warned the corporate has overextended itself and will halt bitcoin purchases earlier than its monetary state of affairs deteriorates additional.
Bitcoin fell to roughly $59,000 on the day, a drop of greater than $6,700 or about 5%, its worst single-day loss in months. The selloff sparked a liquidation cascade throughout crypto derivatives markets, with roughly $1.1 billion in leveraged positions forcibly closed inside a 24-hour window. The transfer pushed bitcoin beneath the typical value foundation for all of Strategy’s purchases made in 2024, 2025, and 2026 — leaving the corporate sitting on an estimated $10.6 billion in unrealized losses.
Strategy fell alongside bitcoin, because it nearly all the time does. Shares opened close to $103 and shed $10.97 from Monday’s shut of $103.84 — the primary time the inventory has traded beneath $100 since March 2024.
CryptoQuant: Cease shopping for, rebuild money
The slide got here on the identical day that CryptoQuant printed a notice calling on Strategy to pause its bitcoin accumulation and restore its money reserves earlier than shopping for extra. The agency’s head of analysis, Julio Moreno, recognized a set of numbers that inform a narrative of an organization whose capital mannequin is beneath pressure.
Strategy’s annual dividend obligations — the funds owed on its stack of most popular devices together with STRC, STRK, STRF, STRD, and STRE — have grown from roughly $300 million in the beginning of 2026 to roughly $1.2 billion now, a close to fourfold improve in beneath six months.Â
Money reserves have fallen 38% this 12 months. Dividend protection, as soon as greater than seven years, has compressed to round 14 months. CryptoQuant recommends the corporate restore money reserves to roughly $2.8 billion earlier than resuming bitcoin purchases.
The popular shares themselves are flashing a warning signal. STRC, Strategy’s variable-rate perpetual most popular, has been buying and selling close to $84, properly beneath its $100 par worth.
When most popular shares commerce beneath par, the capital-raise mechanism that funds bitcoin purchases breaks down — the corporate can’t subject new preferreds at engaging phrases if the prevailing devices are buying and selling at a reduction.
Strategy’s self-reinforcing cycle, in reverse
Strategy’s mannequin was constructed on a premium. When MSTR shares commerce above the worth of the bitcoin on its stability sheet, the corporate can subject inventory or most popular devices, use the proceeds to purchase bitcoin, and push the NAV per share larger — a cycle that rewards current shareholders. The inventory now trades at a reduction to its bitcoin NAV, an mNAV of roughly 0.80x. Meaning each capital faucets — widespread fairness and most popular issuance — are constrained on the similar time.
The corporate holds 847,363 bitcoin, acquired at a median worth of roughly $75,680 per coin. With bitcoin at $59,324, that hole has widened to greater than $16,000 per coin throughout the complete stack.
Peter Schiff, a longtime bitcoin critic who has watched Strategy’s trajectory, stated Tuesday that if MSTR shares proceed to fall, Saylor might face stress to promote bitcoin to satisfy obligations — a state of affairs that might put additional downward stress on the asset underpinning the complete construction.
Strategy made its first bitcoin sale in almost 4 years in early June, offloading 32 BTC. The corporate framed the sale as an indication that it might cowl dividend obligations by way of asset liquidation. The market’s response at this time suggests traders stay unconvinced.
Whether or not Saylor pauses purchases, as CryptoQuant recommends, or finds one other path ahead, the central query now could be whether or not a mannequin constructed to thrive with a premium and a rising bitcoin worth can maintain collectively in an setting the place each have reversed.
On the time of writing, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $59,300, and Strategy shares are close to $92.
