CryptoQuant CEO Ki Younger Ju warns the Bitcoin bear market might lengthen into early 2027, primarily based on on-chain PnL information.
Abstract
- Ki Younger Ju cited CryptoQuant’s PnL Index Sign, which reveals investor profitability usually falls for 18 months after profit-taking cascades start.
- The development started in October 2025, putting a possible bear market backside in early 2027 primarily based on historic patterns.
- A real reversal requires unrealized income to rise whereas realized income fall concurrently, a sign that has not but appeared.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Younger Ju posted on X this week warning that Bitcoin’s present downturn mirrors the prolonged bear cycles of 2014, 2018, and 2022, and will not resolve till early 2027.
“Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors’ PnL typically falls for about 18 months,” Ju wrote. “Since the trend change started in October 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027. The trend only changes when unrealized profits rise and realized profits fall. We’re not there yet.”
What the PnL Index reveals
Ju’s evaluation is grounded in CryptoQuant’s PnL Index Sign, a 365-day transferring common that tracks investor profitability cycles. The indicator peaked in late 2025 in a sample intently matching the tops recorded earlier than the extended bear phases of 2014, 2018, and 2022. Every of these intervals noticed steep sustained declines as soon as the sign rolled over from its peak.
Bitcoin was buying and selling close to $73,000 on the time of the submit, down roughly 30% from its 2025 highs, amid rising macroeconomic strain from elevated US Treasury yields and broader risk-off sentiment throughout markets. As crypto.information reported, bearish social commentary on Bitcoin hit its highest stage in 2026 earlier in April as spot demand weakened.
The reversal sign Ju describes requires a particular mixture that has not but materialised: unrealized revenue margins should start rising whereas realised income fall concurrently, indicating that promoting strain is exhausting itself and patrons are regaining management. Till that sample seems, Ju views the bear case as intact.
Not all analysts share the prolonged timeline. VanEck CEO Jan van Eck advised CNBC earlier this yr that Bitcoin could also be forming a cycle backside, pointing to choices market stabilisation and slowing long-term holder promoting as early constructive indicators. Coinbase famous in its April 2026 month-to-month report that value help could emerge between Could and June, doubtlessly establishing a stronger third quarter.
How Bitcoin recovers from this stage
For a sustained restoration, Ju flagged two vital demand drivers: renewed inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and elevated exercise from over-the-counter institutional desks, each of which have slowed in current months. ETF flows have remained constructive however at a normalised tempo relative to the surge seen in early 2025.
On-chain information from CryptoQuant reveals that capital inflows into Bitcoin proceed to rise, however market capitalisation has not responded proportionally. That divergence, the place cash enters the market however costs stagnate or decline, is the defining signature of a bear market in Ju’s framework.
Bitcoin’s present value is consolidating close to the $73,000 stage, with CoinGlass figuring out $74,200 and $74,500 as key resistance zones the place giant promote orders are clustered. The Readability Act’s potential passage stays one of the vital cited institutional catalysts that analysts consider might shift sentiment, although Ju’s PnL mannequin operates independently of coverage timelines.
