Good Morning, Asia. This is what’s making information within the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a every day abstract of prime tales throughout U.S. hours and an summary of market strikes and evaluation. For an in depth overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
As Asia begins its buying and selling day, bitcoin
is buying and selling above $104,500 and, regardless of a potential looming warfare within the Center East, has been comparatively flat on the day with negligible market motion. Certainly, for the final full week, BTC is just down 2%, in keeping with CoinDesk market information.
Analysts are debating whether or not the crypto market’s present stillness is an indication of energy or if one thing extra precarious is afoot.
Three new studies this week from CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and buying and selling agency Flowdesk all level to the identical floor circumstances: low volatility, tight worth motion, and subdued on-chain exercise. Moreover, retail participation has waned, and institutional gamers, from ETFs to whales, at the moment are shaping the construction of flows.
Nevertheless it’s CryptoQuant that’s flashing probably the most pressing warning.
In its June 19 report, CryptoQuant argued that BTC might quickly revisit $92,000 help and even fall as little as $81,000 if demand continues to deteriorate.
Spot demand continues to be rising, however effectively under development. ETF flows have dropped by greater than 60% since April, whereas whale accumulation has halved. Quick-term holders, who’re often newer market individuals, have shed roughly 800,000 BTC since late Might.
Their demand momentum indicator, which tracks directional shopping for energy throughout key cohorts, is now studying damaging 2 million BTC, the bottom in CryptoQuant’s dataset.
Glassnode, nevertheless, sees the identical alerts and arrives at a far much less dire conclusion.
In its weekly on-chain replace, the agency acknowledges that the Bitcoin blockchain is “quiet,” meaning transaction counts are down, fees are minimal, and miner revenue is subdued.
However, this suggests that it may not be a weakness, but rather a reflection of the network’s evolution. On-chain settlement volume remains high, but it’s concentrated in large-value transfers, suggesting the chain is increasingly being used by institutions and whales.
The derivatives market, Glassnode notes, now dwarfs on-chain activity, with futures and options volumes regularly exceeding spot by 7x–16x.
That shift has brought more sophisticated hedging, better collateral practices, and a more mature, if less frenetic, market structure.
France-based Flowdesk, a market maker and trading firm, has views that fall somewhere in between.
While noting thinning altcoin flows and flat market-making volumes, its June 19 update describes the market as “coiled,” not cracking.
Flowdesk highlights a surge in tokenized property, comparable to Gold-backed XAUT (up 56% in quantity), stablecoin progress, and rising RWA exercise.
To them, low volatility might merely be the calm earlier than a directional breakout, which isn’t essentially downwards.
However ultimately, nobody appears to carry a dependable map for what’s forward.
Even Polymarket bettors aren’t positive as there’s a close to equal probability of BTC dropping to $90K in June or transferring as much as $115K-120K.
One factor is for positive: the tug-of-war between bullish institutional actions and waning retail demand doubtlessly opens bitcoin as much as dramatic strikes on both facet of the commerce, which is able to seemingly dictate the market’s subsequent chapter.
Presto Research Says Crypto Treasury Companies Have Less Risk Than You Think
A new report from Presto Research argues that Crypto Treasury Companies (CTCs), such as Strategy and Metaplanet, are not just leveraged bitcoin ETFs, but a new form of financial engineering with less risk than many investors assume.
Strategy’s latest raise, which raised nearly $1 billion via perpetual preferred shares, shows how BTC’s volatility can be used to an issuer’s advantage.
These securities, along with convertible bonds and at-the-market equity sales, allow CTCs to fund aggressive crypto accumulation without triggering margin risk.
Presto points out that Strategy’s BTC is unpledged and Metaplanet’s bonds are unsecured, meaning collateral liquidation, the primary trigger in past crypto blowups like Celsius and Three Arrows, is largely absent here. That does not eliminate risk, but it changes the nature of it.
The real challenge, Presto argues, is not crypto exposure itself but the discipline to manage dilution, cash flow, and capital timing.
Metaplanet’s “bitcoin yield” metric, which measures BTC per fully diluted share, reflects that focus on shareholder value.
As long as CTCs can manage the financial mechanics behind their accumulation strategies, they will earn NAV premiums just like high-growth companies in traditional markets. But if they miscalculate, the same tools that fuel their rise could accelerate their fall.
Semler Scientific Maps Bold Plan to Hold 105,000 BTC by 2027
Semler Scientific (Nasdaq: SMLR) has unveiled one of the most aggressive bitcoin accumulation roadmaps in corporate history, announcing plans to hold 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, 42,000 by 2026, and a staggering 105,000 by the close of 2027.
The California-based medical device maker, which pivoted to a bitcoin treasury strategy last year, is effectively trying to increase its current bitcoin stash of 4,449 coins by more than two fold over the next 30 months.
It plans to do so using a mix of equity raises, debt financing, and operational cash flow.
There aren’t specific details of how the company plans to fund the buy. Hwever, historically Semler’s primary mechanism for acquiring bitcoin was selling new shares under its at-the-market (ATM) program, which relies on the company trading at a premium to its net asset value (NAV).
According to data from Strategy-Tracker, Semler’s mNAV currently sits at 0.859x, meaning the market values the firm’s equity lower than its BTC holdings, which could be cutting off its ability to raise accretive capital.
How this dynamic plays out, would be worth watching as the firm initiates more bitcoin buying. Even as bitcoin has surged to all-time highs above $100,000, Semler shares are down nearly 40% on the year.
Market Movements:
- BTC: Bitcoin remains stuck below $105K despite strong ETF inflows, with repeated resistance at $105,150 and signs of institutional accumulation offset by short-term bearish momentum and macro volatility.
- ETH: Ethereum found support at $2,490 after a high-volume selloff broke key levels, with the price consolidating in a tight range amid geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, signaling potential for a breakout if resistance at $2,510 is cleared.
- Gold: Gold hovered near $3,366 on Thursday, little changed as escalating geopolitical tensions offset pressure from the Fed’s hawkish stance, while platinum retreated after hitting a near 10-year high; U.S. markets remained closed for Juneteenth.
- Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened 0.24% higher Friday as Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose ahead of China’s loan prime rate decision and amid ongoing Israel-Iran tensions.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
