Bitcoin value held a razor-thin vary between $76,000 and $77,000 on Monday, recording only a -0.05% change at $76,797.74 whereas the broader crypto market buckled beneath iran geopolitical strain.
Over $300 million in crypto positions have been liquidated in 24 hours, in line with knowledge from Coinglass, with lengthy merchants absorbing the majority of these losses. The catalyst was blunt: President Trump posted on Fact Social that he had directed U.S. troops to arrange for a “full, large scale assault” on Iran if a suitable deal isn’t reached, after delaying a deliberate Tuesday strike on the request of Gulf leaders.
BREAKING: President Trump says he has referred to as off a US "Military attack" on Iran which was scheduled for tomorrow after leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE referred to as him and requested him to "hold off."
Trump has instructed the US Army to "be ready to go ahead with a… pic.twitter.com/OQbBYuEP5u
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) Might 18, 2026
The central query now could be whether or not Bitcoin can maintain its present assist zone-or whether or not the following leg down is already loading.
The Crypto Concern & Greed Index slipped into “Extreme Fear” territory, a studying that traditionally marks both a capitulation ground or the start of a deeper breakdown-context issues enormously right here.
Buying and selling quantity on Bitcoin surged 30% over the prior 24 hours, which sounds bullish on the floor however in a sideways market usually indicators indecision quite than conviction.
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Can Bitcoin Worth Maintain $76,500 Amid Iran Information, Or Is a Drop to $65,900 Subsequent?
Bitcoin’s present construction is fragile however not but damaged. The $76,000–$77,000 band has develop into the battleground, with analysts at CryptoQuant figuring out $65,900–$70,500 because the projected vary for this cycle’s backside, utilizing the Bitcoin HODL Waves indicator-a device that maps how lengthy totally different teams of holders have been sitting on their cash to determine market peaks and troughs.
“If $70,500 holds, we’ll slowly grind out a bottom in the upper range. If it breaks, we’ll need to re-evaluate lower support structures,” CryptoQuant analyst acknowledged. Individually, market commentators have warned {that a} every day shut beneath $75,000 might speed up a transfer towards $60,000, suggesting the following thousand {dollars} of draw back carries outsized psychological weight.
Studying the Bitcoin Backside through HODL Waves
“Our predicted price range for this cycle's bottom is $65.9K–$70.5K. If $70.5K holds, we’ll slowly grind out a bottom in the upper range.” – By Sunny Mother
Full evaluation pic.twitter.com/bUebkCmoRw
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) Might 18, 2026
On-chain knowledge gives a counterpoint to the bearish tape. On-chain analytics agency Santiment famous that wallets holding not less than 100 BTC have risen 11.2% year-over-year, climbing from 18,191 to twenty,229 wallets-each representing not less than $7.7 million in holdings at present costs.
“Historically, rising whale wallet counts are viewed as a sign that key stakeholders still have confidence in Bitcoin’s future value and scarcity,” Santiment acknowledged. That’s not a value catalyst by itself, nevertheless it does counsel the smart-money cohort is accumulating into weak spot quite than exiting.
If Bitcoin defends $75,000 on a every day shut, open curiosity resolves to the upside, and a de-escalation within the Iran state of affairs triggers a reduction rally again towards $82,000–$85,000.
Nonetheless, a break beneath $70,500 invalidates the present cycle backside thesis and opens the door to CryptoQuant’s decrease goal of $65,900, seemingly triggered by both renewed Iran escalation or a broader risk-off wave hitting equities.
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