Bitcoin worth has skilled a powerful rally over the previous 16 years, outperforming the inventory market and changing into the fifth-largest asset globally, behind gold, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Apple, with a valuation of $2.1 trillion.
Bitcoin (BTC) has surged over 1,000% within the final 5 years, whereas the Dow Jones has climbed 70% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index has rallied 122% in the identical interval.
Strategy inventory, alternatively, has outperformed all these property after remodeling its enterprise mannequin from a purely software program firm to a Bitcoin holding agency. Its inventory has soared almost 3,000%, rising its market cap from $1 billion in 2020 to $101 billion right this moment.
How the Strategy mannequin works
Buyers all for Bitcoin right this moment have at the very least three most important choices. First, they will take essentially the most easy route: shopping for Bitcoin and storing it on exchanges or in self-custody wallets.
Second, they will spend money on spot Bitcoin ETFs, which now maintain over $131 billion in property. These ETFs provide direct publicity to Bitcoin however cost a small administration price.
Third, there’s Strategy, which has grow to be the biggest company holder of Bitcoin with over 580,250 BTC on its steadiness sheet. Buyers place a premium on its mannequin, with its present market cap of $101 billion standing at 1.58x the worth of its Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy’s strategy has been efficient as a result of its web asset worth (NAV) premium amplifies Bitcoin worth will increase. A better share worth, in flip, makes it simpler for the corporate to boost funds and accumulate extra Bitcoin.
On the similar time, the rising Bitcoin worth helps offset share dilution by rising the agency’s BTC holdings at a quicker fee, leading to greater Bitcoin-per-share for buyers.
Nonetheless, fears of additional dilution have raised issues. The corporate’s plan to boost $84 billion by way of share gross sales has put strain on its inventory. Whereas Bitcoin is buying and selling close to its all-time excessive, Strategy inventory is down over 12% from its 2025 peak.
Bitcoin vs Strategy inventory: which is a greater purchase?
Analysts stay bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. BlackRock predicts BTC might attain $700,000, whereas Ark Make investments units a extra aggressive goal of $2.4 million. If both forecast proves correct, each Bitcoin and Strategy inventory would probably ship robust long-term returns.
At BlackRock’s $700,000 goal, Bitcoin would acquire about 536% from present ranges, giving it a market cap of at the very least $13.9 trillion.
Assuming Strategy holds 576,230 BTC at that time, its Bitcoin holdings can be value $403.36 billion. Making use of the historic NAV premium of 1.58x suggests Strategy’s market cap might attain over $637 billion.
If Bitcoin’s rally continues and the NAV premium holds, Strategy inventory would outperform Bitcoin in relative returns.
