TD Cowen has raised its worth goal on Strategy (MSTR) to $400, pointing to robust bitcoin accumulation and a shift in financing technique as key drivers of potential upside. With shares buying and selling close to $166, the brand new goal implies a achieve of greater than 140%.
The brokerage maintained its purchase ranking, citing faster-than-expected bitcoin purchases and a change in capital construction that helps development in bitcoin per share. Strategy, led by government chairman Michael Saylor, now holds 843,738 BTC, valued close to $64 billion. That place represents greater than 4% of the full bitcoin provide cap.
Analysts famous that the corporate has exceeded prior forecasts for bitcoin purchases throughout the present quarter. Between Might 11 and Might 17, Strategy acquired 24,869 BTC for about $2.01 billion. TD Cowen now expects the agency to buy near 100,000 BTC within the second quarter of this yr alone.
A central metric for the agency’s thesis is bitcoin per 1,000 totally diluted shares, which has risen to 2.21 from 1.95 on the finish of 2025. This improve means that bitcoin accumulation has outpaced dilution from share issuance, a key concern amongst buyers monitoring Strategy’s aggressive capital technique.
Strategy’s most popular fairnessÂ
The agency’s latest use of most popular fairness has performed a significant function in that dynamic. Within the second quarter, Strategy raised about $1.95 billion by way of most popular share issuance, with most proceeds directed towards bitcoin purchases. TD Cowen views this method as much less dilutive than frequent inventory issuance and extra favorable for present shareholders.
On the similar time, Strategy has taken steps to enhance its credit score profile. The corporate repurchased about $1.5 billion in convertible notes at a reduction, a transfer that reduces future refinancing threat and limits potential share dilution. Analysts described the transaction as a constructive sign for each fairness holders and collectors.
TD Cowen’s valuation framework applies a a number of to projected bitcoin positive factors and incorporates anticipated holdings, debt, and most popular fairness obligations. The agency tasks bitcoin-related positive factors of greater than $15 billion in 2026, supporting the upper worth goal.
Regardless of the bullish outlook, Strategy’s inventory stays unstable and tied to bitcoin worth actions. Shares have fallen about 60% over the previous yr and sit effectively beneath their 52-week excessive above $450. Current declines in bitcoin have additionally weighed on the inventory, reinforcing its function as a leveraged proxy for the digital asset.
